Morning Brief
Cross-asset moves for the US open, checked before they're shown. When the data is stale, frozen, implausible or disagrees with a second source, the page says so.
Last updated: Thu Nov 05, 12:59 PM ET, after the US open
Check details (4)
| Status | Check | Series | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| WARN | sanity | ES=F | latest move is 5.6 robust std devs |
| WARN | sanity | NQ=F | latest move is 5.2 robust std devs |
| WARN | sanity | RTY=F | latest move is 5.9 robust std devs |
| WARN | sanity | ^VIX | latest move is 8.7 robust std devs |
129 checks · 21 instruments · 8 cross-checked against FRED or the ECB (2 only coarsely, marked ≈) · 13 single source
Most unusual move: VIX +55.51%, 8.7σ against its own recent volatility. That's past the 4σ WARN line: unusual, worth checking against the news.
Equities
| Instrument | Last | Change | Flag | Cross-check | 20d trend | From → to | Basis | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 futures | 7433.25 | -3.72% | ⚠️ | single source | Wed 11-04 → Thu 11-05 | live | Yahoo | |
| Nasdaq 100 futures | 26978.25 | -5.56% | ⚠️ | single source | Wed 11-04 → Thu 11-05 | live | Yahoo | |
| Russell 2000 futures | 2745.00 | -4.22% | ⚠️ | single source | Wed 11-04 → Thu 11-05 | live | Yahoo | |
| Euro Stoxx 50 | 6231.54 | -0.55% | single source | Wed 11-04 → Thu 11-05 | last session | Yahoo | ||
| Nikkei 225 | 62188.63 | -1.42% | single source | Mon 11-02 → Wed 11-04 | last session | Yahoo | ||
| Hang Seng | 23919.50 | +1.67% | single source | Tue 11-03 → Wed 11-04 | last session | Yahoo | ||
| VIX | 25.83 | +55.51% | ⚠️ | ✓ FRED 16.61 (Wed 11-04) | Wed 11-04 → Thu 11-05 | live | Yahoo |
Rates
| Instrument | Last | Change | Flag | Cross-check | 20d trend | From → to | Basis | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US 3M T-bill rate | 3.998 | -2.7 bp | ✓ FRED 4.030 (Tue 11-03) | Wed 11-04 → Thu 11-05 | live | Yahoo | ||
| US 5Y yield | 4.604 | -8.5 bp | ✓ FRED 4.740 (Tue 11-03) | Wed 11-04 → Thu 11-05 | live | Yahoo | ||
| US 10Y yield | 4.831 | -6.3 bp | ✓ FRED 4.950 (Tue 11-03) | Wed 11-04 → Thu 11-05 | live | Yahoo |
FX
| Instrument | Last | Change | Flag | Cross-check | 20d trend | From → to | Basis | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dollar index | 101.4070 | -0.10% | single source | Wed 11-04 → Thu 11-05 | live | Yahoo | ||
| EUR/USD | 1.1242 | +0.31% | ✓ ECB 1.1224 (Thu 11-05) | Wed 11-04 → Thu 11-05 | live | Yahoo | ||
| USD/JPY | 157.6860 | -0.49% | ≈ FRED 157.4700 (Fri 10-30), coarse | Wed 11-04 → Thu 11-05 | live | Yahoo | ||
| GBP/USD | 1.3483 | +0.36% | ✓ FRED 1.3398 (Fri 10-30) | Wed 11-04 → Thu 11-05 | live | Yahoo |
Commodities
| Instrument | Last | Change | Flag | Cross-check | 20d trend | From → to | Basis | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTI crude | 90.41 | +2.60% | ≈ FRED 99.64 (Tue 11-03), coarse | Wed 11-04 → Thu 11-05 | live | Yahoo | ||
| Natural gas | 2.98 | +0.78% | single source | Wed 11-04 → Thu 11-05 | live | Yahoo | ||
| Gold | 4116.50 | +1.07% | single source | Wed 11-04 → Thu 11-05 | live | Yahoo | ||
| Copper | 6.28 | -1.86% | single source | Wed 11-04 → Thu 11-05 | live | Yahoo | ||
| Corn | 441.25 | -0.68% | single source | Wed 11-04 → Thu 11-05 | live | Yahoo | ||
| Wheat | 601.25 | +0.46% | single source | Wed 11-04 → Thu 11-05 | live | Yahoo | ||
| Soybeans | 1191.75 | -0.13% | single source | Wed 11-04 → Thu 11-05 | live | Yahoo |
Each change compares a ticker's last two rows, so periods differ by market. live = that session was still open when fetched; it is not a real-time price.
13 of 21 instruments are single source: passing checks means they look plausible, not that a second source agrees.
How unusual was this brief?
As a table
| Instrument | Move | σ |
|---|---|---|
| VIX | +55.51% | 8.7 |
| Russell 2000 futures | −4.22% | 5.9 |
| S&P 500 futures | −3.72% | 5.6 |
| Nasdaq 100 futures | −5.56% | 5.2 |
| US 5Y yield | −8.5 bp | 2.2 |
| Copper | −1.86% | 2.0 |
| Hang Seng | +1.67% | 1.8 |
| USD/JPY | −0.49% | 1.8 |
| US 3M T-bill rate | −2.7 bp | 1.6 |
| EUR/USD | +0.31% | 1.6 |
| US 10Y yield | −6.3 bp | 1.4 |
| GBP/USD | +0.36% | 1.2 |
| Nikkei 225 | −1.42% | 1.1 |
| Gold | +1.07% | 1.0 |
| WTI crude | +2.60% | 0.8 |
| Corn | −0.68% | 0.7 |
| Euro Stoxx 50 | −0.55% | 0.7 |
| Dollar index | −0.10% | 0.4 |
| Natural gas | +0.78% | 0.3 |
| Wheat | +0.46% | 0.3 |
| Soybeans | −0.13% | 0.2 |
Each move is measured against that instrument's own recent volatility, using the sanity check's number. WARN at 4σ, FAIL at 10σ. Moves cover different periods by market; see the tables above.
Copy this brief's note: plain text for chat or email, with the same numbers and caveats as this page
Morning Brief, data as of Thu Nov 05, 12:59 PM ET, after the US open Data checks: 4 data warnings. Numbers flagged below may be stale or unusual. (129 checks; 8 of 21 instruments cross-checked) Flagged, don't rely on: S&P 500 futures ⚠️, Nasdaq 100 futures ⚠️, Russell 2000 futures ⚠️, VIX ⚠️ Biggest moves against their own volatility (WARN at 4σ): VIX +55.51% (8.7σ) Russell 2000 futures −4.22% (5.9σ) S&P 500 futures −3.72% (5.6σ) Nasdaq 100 futures −5.56% (5.2σ) US 5Y yield −8.5 bp (2.2σ) US rates: 3M T-bill rate 3.998 (-2.7 bp), 5Y yield 4.604 (-8.5 bp), 10Y yield 4.831 (-6.3 bp) Scheduled today: Nothing listed in the calendars that loaded. Not covered: BLS (CPI, jobs). Check bls.gov. Changes cover different periods by market; 'live' means the session was open when fetched, not a real-time price. Free public data, not production market data. https://kechunwu.github.io/morning-brief/
What's scheduled for Thu Nov 05, 2026
No events scheduled that day in the calendars below.
Next 5 business days (8 events)
Fri Nov 06, 2026
No events listed.
Mon Nov 09, 2026
- 10:00 AM ET Monthly Wholesale Trade: Sales and Inventories, September 2026 (Census)
- 11:30 AM ET 13-Week Bill auction (Treasury)
- 11:30 AM ET 26-Week Bill auction (Treasury)
- 1:00 PM ET 3-Year Note auction (Treasury)
- 1:00 PM ET 6-Week Bill auction (Treasury)
Tue Nov 10, 2026
- 1:00 PM ET 10-Year Note auction (Treasury)
Wed Nov 11, 2026
No events listed.
Thu Nov 12, 2026
Times are New York time, as published. Covers BEA, Census, FOMC, ECB, Treasury. Not covered: BLS, including CPI and jobs reports, because its site refuses automated requests. Check its schedule directly.
Overnight news
- The Federal Reserve Board announced the termination of an enforcement action involving Allegiant United Holdings, LLC, Nano Financial Holdings, Inc., and Nano Banc. [1]
- EIA reports refineries have shifted production away from gasoline toward middle distillates, with particularly high refinery margins for distillate fuel oil and jet fuel contributing to yield shifts in 2026. [4]
- ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel published remarks on monetary policy titled 'Navigating stormy waters: reflections on monetary policy.' [2]
AI-generated from the headlines below (claude-haiku-5-5). Check sources before acting.
All headlines (4)
- [1] Federal Reserve (2026-11-05): Federal Reserve Board announces termination of enforcement action with Allegiant United Holdings, LLC, Nano Financial Holdings, Inc., and Nano Banc
- [2] ECB (2026-11-05): Isabel Schnabel: Navigating stormy waters: reflections on monetary policy
- [3] ECB (2026-11-05): Piero Cipollone: Shaping the future of money
- [4] EIA (2026-11-05): Refineries have shifted production away from gasoline to middle distillates
How the data checks work
- Completeness: every instrument arrived with enough history and no bad values.
- Freshness: the latest row is from the session we expect.
- Gaps: no business days are missing from recent history.
- Sanity: today's move is plausible for that instrument, and the price isn't frozen.
- Reconciliation: two sources for the same series agree.
This page is rebuilt by GitHub Actions after each weekday pre-open refresh. A machine-readable copy of the latest brief is at latest.json.