{
 "version": 1,
 "date": "2026-11-05",
 "run_at": "2026-11-05T17:59:33+00:00",
 "last_fetch": "2026-11-05T17:59:40+00:00",
 "as_of": "Thu Nov 05, 12:59 PM ET, after the US open",
 "status": "WARN",
 "banner": "4 data warnings. Numbers flagged below may be stale or unusual.",
 "problems": [
  {
   "status": "WARN",
   "check": "sanity",
   "ticker": "ES=F",
   "detail": "latest move is 5.6 robust std devs"
  },
  {
   "status": "WARN",
   "check": "sanity",
   "ticker": "NQ=F",
   "detail": "latest move is 5.2 robust std devs"
  },
  {
   "status": "WARN",
   "check": "sanity",
   "ticker": "RTY=F",
   "detail": "latest move is 5.9 robust std devs"
  },
  {
   "status": "WARN",
   "check": "sanity",
   "ticker": "^VIX",
   "detail": "latest move is 8.7 robust std devs"
  }
 ],
 "coverage": {
  "checks": 129,
  "instruments": 21,
  "cross_checked": 8,
  "coarse": 2,
  "single_source": 13
 },
 "headline": "Most unusual move: **VIX +55.51%**, 8.7σ against its own recent volatility. That's past the 4σ WARN line: unusual, worth checking against the news.",
 "tiles": [
  "ES=F",
  "^TNX",
  "DX-Y.NYB",
  "CL=F",
  "GC=F",
  "^VIX"
 ],
 "groups": [
  {
   "name": "Equities",
   "rows": [
    {
     "ticker": "ES=F",
     "name": "S&P 500 futures",
     "last": "7433.25",
     "change": "-3.72%",
     "tint": "down",
     "flag": "⚠️",
     "cross_check": "single source",
     "trend": [
      7859.75,
      7858.0,
      7855.75,
      7770.25,
      7791.0,
      7704.25,
      7734.5,
      7755.25,
      7800.25,
      7704.5,
      7659.75,
      7714.5,
      7758.25,
      7783.25,
      7754.25,
      7614.0,
      7574.5,
      7596.75,
      7720.5,
      7433.25
     ],
     "from_to": "Wed 11-04 → Thu 11-05",
     "basis": "live",
     "source": "Yahoo"
    },
    {
     "ticker": "NQ=F",
     "name": "Nasdaq 100 futures",
     "last": "26978.25",
     "change": "-5.56%",
     "tint": "down",
     "flag": "⚠️",
     "cross_check": "single source",
     "trend": [
      31108.75,
      30898.25,
      30791.5,
      30182.75,
      30143.75,
      29391.5,
      29722.5,
      29675.25,
      30007.0,
      29142.0,
      29117.75,
      29437.25,
      29812.0,
      29979.5,
      29562.0,
      28534.0,
      28127.5,
      28305.75,
      28566.75,
      26978.25
     ],
     "from_to": "Wed 11-04 → Thu 11-05",
     "basis": "live",
     "source": "Yahoo"
    },
    {
     "ticker": "RTY=F",
     "name": "Russell 2000 futures",
     "last": "2745.00",
     "change": "-4.22%",
     "tint": "down",
     "flag": "⚠️",
     "cross_check": "single source",
     "trend": [
      2822.100098,
      2812.199951,
      2800.100098,
      2745.0,
      2781.800049,
      2735.5,
      2742.300049,
      2786.899902,
      2794.199951,
      2796.100098,
      2784.5,
      2797.5,
      2828.5,
      2839.5,
      2867.300049,
      2821.300049,
      2817.800049,
      2825.0,
      2865.899902,
      2745.0
     ],
     "from_to": "Wed 11-04 → Thu 11-05",
     "basis": "live",
     "source": "Yahoo"
    },
    {
     "ticker": "^STOXX50E",
     "name": "Euro Stoxx 50",
     "last": "6231.54",
     "change": "-0.55%",
     "tint": "down",
     "flag": "",
     "cross_check": "single source",
     "trend": [
      6173.370117,
      6201.209961,
      6167.009766,
      6190.370117,
      6168.259766,
      6204.22998,
      6144.810059,
      6121.660156,
      6207.52002,
      6087.009766,
      6068.220215,
      6116.22998,
      6164.689941,
      6167.810059,
      6207.069824,
      6131.310059,
      6176.060059,
      6144.560059,
      6265.709961,
      6231.540039
     ],
     "from_to": "Wed 11-04 → Thu 11-05",
     "basis": "last session",
     "source": "Yahoo"
    },
    {
     "ticker": "^N225",
     "name": "Nikkei 225",
     "last": "62188.63",
     "change": "-1.42%",
     "tint": "down",
     "flag": "",
     "cross_check": "single source",
     "trend": [
      70683.976562,
      70035.710938,
      69042.109375,
      69030.921875,
      67777.523438,
      67744.289062,
      64425.949219,
      65324.289062,
      64916.699219,
      64075.421875,
      64621.238281,
      62907.839844,
      62693.160156,
      62189.648438,
      63268.371094,
      63954.191406,
      64659.46875,
      63290.109375,
      63081.859375,
      62188.628906
     ],
     "from_to": "Mon 11-02 → Wed 11-04",
     "basis": "last session",
     "source": "Yahoo"
    },
    {
     "ticker": "^HSI",
     "name": "Hang Seng",
     "last": "23919.50",
     "change": "+1.67%",
     "tint": "up",
     "flag": "",
     "cross_check": "single source",
     "trend": [
      24130.5,
      23785.789062,
      24211.349609,
      24271.199219,
      24345.220703,
      24314.169922,
      24062.720703,
      24186.830078,
      23867.740234,
      23651.869141,
      22934.679688,
      23093.369141,
      23211.810547,
      23041.320312,
      23094.830078,
      22958.650391,
      23294.419922,
      23393.320312,
      23525.970703,
      23919.5
     ],
     "from_to": "Tue 11-03 → Wed 11-04",
     "basis": "last session",
     "source": "Yahoo"
    },
    {
     "ticker": "^VIX",
     "name": "VIX",
     "last": "25.83",
     "change": "+55.51%",
     "tint": "up",
     "flag": "⚠️",
     "cross_check": "✓ FRED 16.61 (Wed 11-04)",
     "trend": [
      14.84,
      15.21,
      15.27,
      16.870001,
      16.459999,
      19.99,
      18.440001,
      17.309999,
      16.68,
      19.030001,
      19.450001,
      18.389999,
      17.52,
      16.91,
      17.200001,
      19.42,
      21.15,
      20.83,
      16.610001,
      25.83
     ],
     "from_to": "Wed 11-04 → Thu 11-05",
     "basis": "live",
     "source": "Yahoo"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "Rates",
   "rows": [
    {
     "ticker": "^IRX",
     "name": "US 3M T-bill rate",
     "last": "3.998",
     "change": "-2.7 bp",
     "tint": "down",
     "flag": "",
     "cross_check": "✓ FRED 4.030 (Tue 11-03)",
     "trend": [
      4.057,
      4.05,
      4.057,
      4.085,
      4.088,
      4.07,
      4.075,
      4.08,
      4.063,
      4.022,
      4.032,
      4.025,
      4.04,
      3.995,
      3.998,
      3.973,
      3.982,
      4.025,
      4.025,
      3.998
     ],
     "from_to": "Wed 11-04 → Thu 11-05",
     "basis": "live",
     "source": "Yahoo"
    },
    {
     "ticker": "^FVX",
     "name": "US 5Y yield",
     "last": "4.604",
     "change": "-8.5 bp",
     "tint": "down",
     "flag": "",
     "cross_check": "✓ FRED 4.740 (Tue 11-03)",
     "trend": [
      5.021,
      5.019,
      5.007,
      4.992,
      4.899,
      4.899,
      4.929,
      4.935,
      4.972,
      4.768,
      4.805,
      4.824,
      4.84,
      4.871,
      4.801,
      4.721,
      4.693,
      4.743,
      4.689,
      4.604
     ],
     "from_to": "Wed 11-04 → Thu 11-05",
     "basis": "live",
     "source": "Yahoo"
    },
    {
     "ticker": "^TNX",
     "name": "US 10Y yield",
     "last": "4.831",
     "change": "-6.3 bp",
     "tint": "down",
     "flag": "",
     "cross_check": "✓ FRED 4.950 (Tue 11-03)",
     "trend": [
      5.244,
      5.24,
      5.217,
      5.19,
      5.089,
      5.098,
      5.136,
      5.117,
      5.146,
      4.953,
      4.988,
      4.986,
      4.993,
      5.045,
      4.989,
      4.929,
      4.894,
      4.952,
      4.894,
      4.831
     ],
     "from_to": "Wed 11-04 → Thu 11-05",
     "basis": "live",
     "source": "Yahoo"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "FX",
   "rows": [
    {
     "ticker": "DX-Y.NYB",
     "name": "Dollar index",
     "last": "101.4070",
     "change": "-0.10%",
     "tint": "down",
     "flag": "",
     "cross_check": "single source",
     "trend": [
      102.209999,
      102.580002,
      102.18,
      102.550003,
      102.0,
      101.839996,
      101.980003,
      101.730003,
      101.779999,
      101.610001,
      101.809998,
      101.959999,
      102.32,
      102.190002,
      102.040001,
      101.879997,
      101.75,
      101.870003,
      101.510002,
      101.406998
     ],
     "from_to": "Wed 11-04 → Thu 11-05",
     "basis": "live",
     "source": "Yahoo"
    },
    {
     "ticker": "EURUSD=X",
     "name": "EUR/USD",
     "last": "1.1242",
     "change": "+0.31%",
     "tint": "up",
     "flag": "",
     "cross_check": "✓ ECB 1.1224 (Thu 11-05)",
     "trend": [
      1.121302,
      1.120473,
      1.116022,
      1.120448,
      1.119507,
      1.121315,
      1.122549,
      1.121579,
      1.122675,
      1.123469,
      1.122146,
      1.121755,
      1.117381,
      1.112966,
      1.115573,
      1.118281,
      1.115685,
      1.119207,
      1.120724,
      1.124227
     ],
     "from_to": "Wed 11-04 → Thu 11-05",
     "basis": "live",
     "source": "Yahoo"
    },
    {
     "ticker": "USDJPY=X",
     "name": "USD/JPY",
     "last": "157.6860",
     "change": "-0.49%",
     "tint": "down",
     "flag": "",
     "cross_check": "≈ FRED 157.4700 (Fri 10-30), coarse",
     "trend": [
      158.063004,
      158.203003,
      158.520004,
      158.322006,
      157.957001,
      158.143005,
      157.806,
      158.522995,
      158.268005,
      158.132004,
      156.494003,
      156.830002,
      157.528,
      157.992996,
      157.832993,
      157.804001,
      157.677002,
      157.914993,
      158.468994,
      157.686005
     ],
     "from_to": "Wed 11-04 → Thu 11-05",
     "basis": "live",
     "source": "Yahoo"
    },
    {
     "ticker": "GBPUSD=X",
     "name": "GBP/USD",
     "last": "1.3483",
     "change": "+0.36%",
     "tint": "up",
     "flag": "",
     "cross_check": "✓ FRED 1.3398 (Fri 10-30)",
     "trend": [
      1.322909,
      1.324152,
      1.32098,
      1.325732,
      1.323014,
      1.327316,
      1.333565,
      1.330849,
      1.337327,
      1.339567,
      1.340393,
      1.337775,
      1.334508,
      1.33063,
      1.3328,
      1.337864,
      1.338563,
      1.340986,
      1.343418,
      1.34829
     ],
     "from_to": "Wed 11-04 → Thu 11-05",
     "basis": "live",
     "source": "Yahoo"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "Commodities",
   "rows": [
    {
     "ticker": "CL=F",
     "name": "WTI crude",
     "last": "90.41",
     "change": "+2.60%",
     "tint": "up",
     "flag": "",
     "cross_check": "≈ FRED 99.64 (Tue 11-03), coarse",
     "trend": [
      91.849998,
      93.739998,
      94.139999,
      95.089996,
      97.970001,
      101.410004,
      103.660004,
      101.790001,
      97.150002,
      99.470001,
      103.269997,
      101.760002,
      99.900002,
      102.779999,
      102.0,
      104.120003,
      96.459999,
      96.089996,
      88.120003,
      90.410004
     ],
     "from_to": "Wed 11-04 → Thu 11-05",
     "basis": "live",
     "source": "Yahoo"
    },
    {
     "ticker": "NG=F",
     "name": "Natural gas",
     "last": "2.98",
     "change": "+0.78%",
     "tint": "up",
     "flag": "",
     "cross_check": "single source",
     "trend": [
      3.22,
      3.167,
      3.283,
      3.198,
      3.236,
      3.116,
      3.058,
      2.963,
      2.79,
      2.796,
      2.64,
      2.602,
      2.697,
      2.817,
      2.952,
      2.898,
      2.856,
      2.895,
      2.959,
      2.982
     ],
     "from_to": "Wed 11-04 → Thu 11-05",
     "basis": "live",
     "source": "Yahoo"
    },
    {
     "ticker": "GC=F",
     "name": "Gold",
     "last": "4116.50",
     "change": "+1.07%",
     "tint": "up",
     "flag": "",
     "cross_check": "single source",
     "trend": [
      4216.299805,
      4190.600098,
      4177.299805,
      4107.899902,
      4170.100098,
      4181.100098,
      4160.100098,
      4142.600098,
      4150.0,
      4060.399902,
      4007.899902,
      4038.399902,
      4074.600098,
      4051.600098,
      4031.399902,
      3898.899902,
      3969.600098,
      3940.399902,
      4073.0,
      4116.5
     ],
     "from_to": "Wed 11-04 → Thu 11-05",
     "basis": "live",
     "source": "Yahoo"
    },
    {
     "ticker": "HG=F",
     "name": "Copper",
     "last": "6.28",
     "change": "-1.86%",
     "tint": "down",
     "flag": "",
     "cross_check": "single source",
     "trend": [
      6.6425,
      6.6985,
      6.678,
      6.6115,
      6.5115,
      6.531,
      6.538,
      6.5665,
      6.543,
      6.3625,
      6.476,
      6.508,
      6.622,
      6.6415,
      6.581,
      6.4585,
      6.5435,
      6.3785,
      6.403,
      6.284
     ],
     "from_to": "Wed 11-04 → Thu 11-05",
     "basis": "live",
     "source": "Yahoo"
    },
    {
     "ticker": "ZC=F",
     "name": "Corn",
     "last": "441.25",
     "change": "-0.68%",
     "tint": "down",
     "flag": "",
     "cross_check": "single source",
     "trend": [
      479.75,
      483.0,
      482.75,
      480.75,
      478.0,
      474.25,
      467.0,
      462.0,
      463.25,
      460.5,
      456.0,
      455.0,
      448.75,
      451.75,
      451.25,
      447.75,
      448.25,
      442.5,
      444.25,
      441.25
     ],
     "from_to": "Wed 11-04 → Thu 11-05",
     "basis": "live",
     "source": "Yahoo"
    },
    {
     "ticker": "ZW=F",
     "name": "Wheat",
     "last": "601.25",
     "change": "+0.46%",
     "tint": "up",
     "flag": "",
     "cross_check": "single source",
     "trend": [
      671.0,
      672.25,
      669.25,
      673.25,
      670.0,
      660.5,
      655.25,
      643.25,
      628.25,
      624.75,
      625.0,
      616.0,
      610.25,
      599.0,
      603.75,
      603.5,
      606.5,
      599.75,
      598.5,
      601.25
     ],
     "from_to": "Wed 11-04 → Thu 11-05",
     "basis": "live",
     "source": "Yahoo"
    },
    {
     "ticker": "ZS=F",
     "name": "Soybeans",
     "last": "1191.75",
     "change": "-0.13%",
     "tint": "down",
     "flag": "",
     "cross_check": "single source",
     "trend": [
      1292.0,
      1287.75,
      1283.75,
      1277.25,
      1263.0,
      1261.25,
      1253.5,
      1248.25,
      1245.25,
      1253.0,
      1256.5,
      1241.25,
      1229.25,
      1224.5,
      1219.75,
      1222.25,
      1204.75,
      1203.0,
      1193.25,
      1191.75
     ],
     "from_to": "Wed 11-04 → Thu 11-05",
     "basis": "live",
     "source": "Yahoo"
    }
   ]
  }
 ],
 "ranking": [
  {
   "name": "VIX",
   "change": "+55.51%",
   "z": 8.712
  },
  {
   "name": "Russell 2000 futures",
   "change": "−4.22%",
   "z": 5.857
  },
  {
   "name": "S&P 500 futures",
   "change": "−3.72%",
   "z": 5.622
  },
  {
   "name": "Nasdaq 100 futures",
   "change": "−5.56%",
   "z": 5.159
  },
  {
   "name": "US 5Y yield",
   "change": "−8.5 bp",
   "z": 2.248
  },
  {
   "name": "Copper",
   "change": "−1.86%",
   "z": 1.979
  },
  {
   "name": "Hang Seng",
   "change": "+1.67%",
   "z": 1.821
  },
  {
   "name": "USD/JPY",
   "change": "−0.49%",
   "z": 1.799
  },
  {
   "name": "US 3M T-bill rate",
   "change": "−2.7 bp",
   "z": 1.584
  },
  {
   "name": "EUR/USD",
   "change": "+0.31%",
   "z": 1.581
  },
  {
   "name": "US 10Y yield",
   "change": "−6.3 bp",
   "z": 1.44
  },
  {
   "name": "GBP/USD",
   "change": "+0.36%",
   "z": 1.151
  },
  {
   "name": "Nikkei 225",
   "change": "−1.42%",
   "z": 1.08
  },
  {
   "name": "Gold",
   "change": "+1.07%",
   "z": 0.951
  },
  {
   "name": "WTI crude",
   "change": "+2.60%",
   "z": 0.848
  },
  {
   "name": "Corn",
   "change": "−0.68%",
   "z": 0.705
  },
  {
   "name": "Euro Stoxx 50",
   "change": "−0.55%",
   "z": 0.676
  },
  {
   "name": "Dollar index",
   "change": "−0.10%",
   "z": 0.384
  },
  {
   "name": "Natural gas",
   "change": "+0.78%",
   "z": 0.286
  },
  {
   "name": "Wheat",
   "change": "+0.46%",
   "z": 0.271
  },
  {
   "name": "Soybeans",
   "change": "−0.13%",
   "z": 0.184
  }
 ],
 "thresholds": {
  "warn": 4.0,
  "fail": 10.0
 },
 "too_short": [],
 "schedule": {
  "state": "no_events",
  "today": [],
  "upcoming": {
   "2026-11-06": [],
   "2026-11-09": [
    {
     "event": "Monthly Wholesale Trade: Sales and Inventories, September 2026",
     "time": "10:00 AM ET",
     "sort": "10:00",
     "sources": [
      [
       "Census",
       "https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/calendar-listview.html"
      ]
     ]
    },
    {
     "event": "13-Week Bill auction",
     "time": "11:30 AM ET",
     "sort": "11:30",
     "sources": [
      [
       "Treasury",
       "https://www.treasurydirect.gov/auctions/upcoming/"
      ]
     ]
    },
    {
     "event": "26-Week Bill auction",
     "time": "11:30 AM ET",
     "sort": "11:30",
     "sources": [
      [
       "Treasury",
       "https://www.treasurydirect.gov/auctions/upcoming/"
      ]
     ]
    },
    {
     "event": "3-Year Note auction",
     "time": "1:00 PM ET",
     "sort": "13:00",
     "sources": [
      [
       "Treasury",
       "https://www.treasurydirect.gov/auctions/upcoming/"
      ]
     ]
    },
    {
     "event": "6-Week Bill auction",
     "time": "1:00 PM ET",
     "sort": "13:00",
     "sources": [
      [
       "Treasury",
       "https://www.treasurydirect.gov/auctions/upcoming/"
      ]
     ]
    }
   ],
   "2026-11-10": [
    {
     "event": "10-Year Note auction",
     "time": "1:00 PM ET",
     "sort": "13:00",
     "sources": [
      [
       "Treasury",
       "https://www.treasurydirect.gov/auctions/upcoming/"
      ]
     ]
    }
   ],
   "2026-11-11": [],
   "2026-11-12": [
    {
     "event": "Business Formation Statistics, October 2026",
     "time": "10:00 AM ET",
     "sort": "10:00",
     "sources": [
      [
       "Census",
       "https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/calendar-listview.html"
      ]
     ]
    },
    {
     "event": "30-Year Bond auction",
     "time": "1:00 PM ET",
     "sort": "13:00",
     "sources": [
      [
       "Treasury",
       "https://www.treasurydirect.gov/auctions/upcoming/"
      ]
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  "failed": [],
  "covered": [
   "BEA",
   "Census",
   "FOMC",
   "ECB",
   "Treasury"
  ]
 },
 "news": {
  "model": "claude-haiku-5-5",
  "bullets": [
   {
    "bullet": "The Federal Reserve Board announced the termination of an enforcement action involving Allegiant United Holdings, LLC, Nano Financial Holdings, Inc., and Nano Banc.",
    "sources": [
     1
    ]
   },
   {
    "bullet": "EIA reports refineries have shifted production away from gasoline toward middle distillates, with particularly high refinery margins for distillate fuel oil and jet fuel contributing to yield shifts in 2026.",
    "sources": [
     4
    ]
   },
   {
    "bullet": "ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel published remarks on monetary policy titled 'Navigating stormy waters: reflections on monetary policy.'",
    "sources": [
     2
    ]
   }
  ],
  "headlines": [
   {
    "source": "Federal Reserve",
    "title": "Federal Reserve Board announces termination of enforcement action with Allegiant United Holdings, LLC, Nano Financial Holdings, Inc., and Nano Banc",
    "summary": "Federal Reserve Board announces termination of enforcement action with Allegiant United Holdings, LLC, Nano Financial Holdings, Inc., and Nano Banc",
    "link": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/enforcement20261105a.htm",
    "published": "2026-11-05T16:00:00+00:00",
    "id": 1
   },
   {
    "source": "ECB",
    "title": "Isabel Schnabel: Navigating stormy waters: reflections on monetary policy",
    "summary": "",
    "link": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu//press/key/date/2026/html/ecb.sp261105_1~5e97d9d5a0.en.html",
    "published": "2026-11-05T08:00:00+00:00",
    "id": 2
   },
   {
    "source": "ECB",
    "title": "Piero Cipollone: Shaping the future of money",
    "summary": "",
    "link": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu//press/key/date/2026/html/ecb.sp261105~6495a0df6f.en.html",
    "published": "2026-11-05T07:30:00+00:00",
    "id": 3
   },
   {
    "source": "EIA",
    "title": "Refineries have shifted production away from gasoline to middle distillates",
    "summary": "Particularly high refinery margins for distillate fuel oil and jet fuel have contributed to shifts in the refinery yields of major products in 2026. Data from our latest Petroleum Supply Monthly—which includes data through August 2026—indicate refinery yields of gasoline have decreased significantly this year to support increased production of distillate fuel oil and jet fuel, sometimes referred to as middle distillates due to their relative cut points in the oil refining process.",
    "link": "https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=68424",
    "published": "2026-11-05T14:00:00+00:00",
    "id": 4
   }
  ],
  "error": null
 },
 "note": "Morning Brief, data as of Thu Nov 05, 12:59 PM ET, after the US open\nData checks: 4 data warnings. Numbers flagged below may be stale or unusual. (129 checks; 8 of 21 instruments cross-checked)\nFlagged, don't rely on: S&P 500 futures ⚠️, Nasdaq 100 futures ⚠️, Russell 2000 futures ⚠️, VIX ⚠️\n\nBiggest moves against their own volatility (WARN at 4σ):\n  VIX +55.51% (8.7σ)\n  Russell 2000 futures −4.22% (5.9σ)\n  S&P 500 futures −3.72% (5.6σ)\n  Nasdaq 100 futures −5.56% (5.2σ)\n  US 5Y yield −8.5 bp (2.2σ)\n\nUS rates: 3M T-bill rate 3.998 (-2.7 bp), 5Y yield 4.604 (-8.5 bp), 10Y yield 4.831 (-6.3 bp)\n\nScheduled today:\n  Nothing listed in the calendars that loaded.\n  Not covered: BLS (CPI, jobs). Check bls.gov.\n\nChanges cover different periods by market; 'live' means the session was open when fetched, not a real-time price. Free public data, not production market data. https://kechunwu.github.io/morning-brief/"
}