Morning Brief
Cross-asset moves for the US open, checked before they're shown. When the data is stale, frozen, implausible or disagrees with a second source, the page says so.
Last updated: Wed Nov 04, 4:03 PM ET, after the US open
129 checks · 21 instruments · 8 cross-checked against FRED or the ECB · 13 single source
Most unusual move: VIX −19.59%, 3.1σ against its own recent volatility. Nothing reaches the 4σ WARN line.
Equities
| Instrument | Last | Change | Flag | Cross-check | 20d trend | From → to | Basis | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 futures | 7719.00 | +1.61% | single source | Tue 11-03 → Wed 11-04 | live | Yahoo | ||
| Nasdaq 100 futures | 28542.50 | +0.84% | single source | Tue 11-03 → Wed 11-04 | live | Yahoo | ||
| Russell 2000 futures | 2865.90 | +1.45% | single source | Tue 11-03 → Wed 11-04 | live | Yahoo | ||
| Euro Stoxx 50 | 6265.71 | +1.97% | single source | Tue 11-03 → Wed 11-04 | last session | Yahoo | ||
| Nikkei 225 | 63081.86 | -0.33% | single source | Fri 10-30 → Mon 11-02 | last session | Yahoo | ||
| Hang Seng | 23525.97 | +0.57% | single source | Mon 11-02 → Tue 11-03 | last session | Yahoo | ||
| VIX | 16.75 | -19.59% | ✓ FRED 20.83 (Tue 11-03) | Tue 11-03 → Wed 11-04 | live | Yahoo |
Rates
| Instrument | Last | Change | Flag | Cross-check | 20d trend | From → to | Basis | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US 3M T-bill rate | 4.025 | +0.0 bp | ✓ FRED 4.030 (Mon 11-02) | Tue 11-03 → Wed 11-04 | prior US session | Yahoo | ||
| US 5Y yield | 4.689 | -5.4 bp | ✓ FRED 4.700 (Mon 11-02) | Tue 11-03 → Wed 11-04 | prior US session | Yahoo | ||
| US 10Y yield | 4.894 | -5.8 bp | ✓ FRED 4.910 (Mon 11-02) | Tue 11-03 → Wed 11-04 | prior US session | Yahoo |
FX
| Instrument | Last | Change | Flag | Cross-check | 20d trend | From → to | Basis | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dollar index | 101.5130 | -0.35% | single source | Tue 11-03 → Wed 11-04 | live | Yahoo | ||
| EUR/USD | 1.1233 | +0.37% | ✓ ECB 1.1267 (Wed 11-04) | Tue 11-03 → Wed 11-04 | live | Yahoo | ||
| USD/JPY | 158.4560 | +0.34% | ✓ FRED 157.4700 (Fri 10-30) | Tue 11-03 → Wed 11-04 | live | Yahoo | ||
| GBP/USD | 1.3472 | +0.46% | ✓ FRED 1.3398 (Fri 10-30) | Tue 11-03 → Wed 11-04 | live | Yahoo |
Commodities
| Instrument | Last | Change | Flag | Cross-check | 20d trend | From → to | Basis | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTI crude | 88.70 | -7.69% | ✓ FRED 99.64 (Tue 11-03) | Tue 11-03 → Wed 11-04 | live | Yahoo | ||
| Natural gas | 2.95 | +1.93% | single source | Tue 11-03 → Wed 11-04 | live | Yahoo | ||
| Gold | 4068.90 | +3.26% | single source | Tue 11-03 → Wed 11-04 | live | Yahoo | ||
| Copper | 6.41 | +0.45% | single source | Tue 11-03 → Wed 11-04 | live | Yahoo | ||
| Corn | 445.75 | +0.73% | single source | Tue 11-03 → Wed 11-04 | last session | Yahoo | ||
| Wheat | 599.25 | -0.08% | single source | Tue 11-03 → Wed 11-04 | last session | Yahoo | ||
| Soybeans | 1203.75 | +0.06% | single source | Tue 11-03 → Wed 11-04 | last session | Yahoo |
Each change compares a ticker's last two rows, so periods differ by market. live = that session was still open when fetched; it is not a real-time price.
13 of 21 instruments are single source: passing checks means they look plausible, not that a second source agrees.
How unusual was this brief?
As a table
| Instrument | Move | σ |
|---|---|---|
| VIX | −19.59% | 3.1 |
| Gold | +3.26% | 3.1 |
| WTI crude | −7.69% | 2.7 |
| S&P 500 futures | +1.61% | 2.5 |
| Euro Stoxx 50 | +1.97% | 2.5 |
| Russell 2000 futures | +1.45% | 2.1 |
| EUR/USD | +0.37% | 2.0 |
| GBP/USD | +0.46% | 1.6 |
| US 5Y yield | −5.4 bp | 1.4 |
| Dollar index | −0.35% | 1.4 |
| US 10Y yield | −5.8 bp | 1.4 |
| USD/JPY | +0.34% | 1.3 |
| Nasdaq 100 futures | +0.84% | 0.8 |
| Corn | +0.73% | 0.8 |
| Natural gas | +1.93% | 0.7 |
| Hang Seng | +0.57% | 0.6 |
| Copper | +0.45% | 0.5 |
| Nikkei 225 | −0.33% | 0.2 |
| Soybeans | +0.06% | 0.1 |
| Wheat | −0.08% | 0.0 |
| US 3M T-bill rate | +0.0 bp | 0.0 |
Each move is measured against that instrument's own recent volatility, using the sanity check's number. WARN at 4σ, FAIL at 10σ. Moves cover different periods by market; see the tables above.
Copy this brief's note: plain text for chat or email, with the same numbers and caveats as this page
Morning Brief, data as of Wed Nov 04, 4:03 PM ET, after the US open Data checks: All data checks passed. (129 checks; 8 of 21 instruments cross-checked) Biggest moves against their own volatility (WARN at 4σ): VIX −19.59% (3.1σ) Gold +3.26% (3.1σ) WTI crude −7.69% (2.7σ) S&P 500 futures +1.61% (2.5σ) Euro Stoxx 50 +1.97% (2.5σ) US rates: 3M T-bill rate 4.025 (+0.0 bp), 5Y yield 4.689 (-5.4 bp), 10Y yield 4.894 (-5.8 bp) Scheduled today: 8:30 AM ET U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, September 2026 (Census) Not covered: BLS (CPI, jobs). Check bls.gov. Changes cover different periods by market; 'live' means the session was open when fetched, not a real-time price. Free public data, not production market data. https://kechunwu.github.io/morning-brief/
What's scheduled for Wed Nov 04, 2026
- 8:30 AM ET U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, September 2026 (Census)
Next 5 business days (8 events)
Thu Nov 05, 2026
Fri Nov 06, 2026
No events listed.
Mon Nov 09, 2026
- 10:00 AM ET Monthly Wholesale Trade: Sales and Inventories, September 2026 (Census)
- 1:00 PM ET 3-Year Note auction (Treasury)
- time not published 13-Week Bill auction (Treasury)
- time not published 26-Week Bill auction (Treasury)
- time not published 6-Week Bill auction (Treasury)
Tue Nov 10, 2026
- 1:00 PM ET 10-Year Note auction (Treasury)
Wed Nov 11, 2026
No events listed.
Times are New York time, as published. Covers BEA, Census, FOMC, ECB, Treasury. Not covered: BLS, including CPI and jobs reports, because its site refuses automated requests. Check its schedule directly.
Overnight news
- The ECB wage tracker suggests slightly higher wage growth in the first three quarters of 2027 compared with the full year of 2026. [1]
- The U.S. goods and services trade deficit decreased in September 2026, from $105.7 billion in August, according to the BEA and the U.S. Census Bureau. [2]
AI-generated from the headlines below (claude-haiku-5-5). Check sources before acting.
All headlines (2)
How the data checks work
- Completeness: every instrument arrived with enough history and no bad values.
- Freshness: the latest row is from the session we expect.
- Gaps: no business days are missing from recent history.
- Sanity: today's move is plausible for that instrument, and the price isn't frozen.
- Reconciliation: two sources for the same series agree.
This page is rebuilt by GitHub Actions after each weekday pre-open refresh. A machine-readable copy of the latest brief is at latest.json.