Morning Brief
Cross-asset moves for the US open, checked before they're shown. When the data is stale, frozen, implausible or disagrees with a second source, the page says so.
Last updated: Thu Nov 05, 12:59 PM ET, after the US open
Check details (4)
| Status | Check | Series | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| WARN | sanity | ES=F | latest move is 5.6 robust std devs |
| WARN | sanity | NQ=F | latest move is 5.2 robust std devs |
| WARN | sanity | RTY=F | latest move is 5.9 robust std devs |
| WARN | sanity | ^VIX | latest move is 8.7 robust std devs |
129 checks · 21 instruments · 8 cross-checked against FRED or the ECB (2 only coarsely, marked ≈) · 13 single source
Most unusual move: VIX +55.51%, 8.7σ against its own recent volatility. That's past the 4σ WARN line: unusual, worth checking against the news.
Try to break it: a real disagreement between two sources, then inject your own bad print, frozen feed or unit error
A real one first
Yahoo and FRED both publish the VIX close, and they normally match exactly.
On Fri Feb 06, 2026, Yahoo's VIX close was 20.37 and FRED's was 17.76, a gap of 2.61. The real reconciliation check, run on that day's data, returns FAIL (fail at ≥ 0.5).
| Date | Yahoo | FRED | Gap | Check |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri Jan 30 | 17.44 | 17.44 | 0.00 | 0 |
| Mon Feb 02 | 16.34 | 16.34 | 0.00 | 0 |
| Tue Feb 03 | 18.00 | 18.00 | 0.00 | 0 |
| Wed Feb 04 | 18.64 | 18.64 | 0.00 | 0 |
| Thu Feb 05 | 21.77 | 21.77 | 0.00 | 0 |
| Fri Feb 06 | 20.37 | 17.76 | 2.61 | 2 |
| Mon Feb 09 | 17.36 | 17.36 | 0.00 | 0 |
| Tue Feb 10 | 17.79 | 17.79 | 0.00 | 0 |
| Wed Feb 11 | 17.65 | 17.65 | 0.00 | 0 |
| Thu Feb 12 | 20.82 | 20.82 | 0.00 | 0 |
| Fri Feb 13 | 20.60 | 20.60 | 0.00 | 0 |
Closes as downloaded from both sources; the status is the real reconciliation check's own output on each day. Two sources can't say which one is wrong, so both rows would be flagged.
Now try your own
Every combination below was run through the real checks on a copy of this brief's data when the page was built. Nothing here changes the data or the banner above.
Equities
| Instrument | Last | Change | Flag | Cross-check | 20d trend | From → to | Basis | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 futures | 7433.25 | -3.72% | ⚠️ | single source | Wed 11-04 → Thu 11-05 | live | Yahoo | |
| Nasdaq 100 futures | 26978.25 | -5.56% | ⚠️ | single source | Wed 11-04 → Thu 11-05 | live | Yahoo | |
| Russell 2000 futures | 2745.00 | -4.22% | ⚠️ | single source | Wed 11-04 → Thu 11-05 | live | Yahoo | |
| Euro Stoxx 50 | 6231.54 | -0.55% | single source | Wed 11-04 → Thu 11-05 | last session | Yahoo | ||
| Nikkei 225 | 62188.63 | -1.42% | single source | Mon 11-02 → Wed 11-04 | last session | Yahoo | ||
| Hang Seng | 23919.50 | +1.67% | single source | Tue 11-03 → Wed 11-04 | last session | Yahoo | ||
| VIX | 25.83 | +55.51% | ⚠️ | ✓ FRED 16.61 (Wed 11-04) | Wed 11-04 → Thu 11-05 | live | Yahoo |
Rates
| Instrument | Last | Change | Flag | Cross-check | 20d trend | From → to | Basis | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US 3M T-bill rate | 3.998 | -2.7 bp | ✓ FRED 4.030 (Tue 11-03) | Wed 11-04 → Thu 11-05 | live | Yahoo | ||
| US 5Y yield | 4.604 | -8.5 bp | ✓ FRED 4.740 (Tue 11-03) | Wed 11-04 → Thu 11-05 | live | Yahoo | ||
| US 10Y yield | 4.831 | -6.3 bp | ✓ FRED 4.950 (Tue 11-03) | Wed 11-04 → Thu 11-05 | live | Yahoo |
FX
| Instrument | Last | Change | Flag | Cross-check | 20d trend | From → to | Basis | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dollar index | 101.4070 | -0.10% | single source | Wed 11-04 → Thu 11-05 | live | Yahoo | ||
| EUR/USD | 1.1242 | +0.31% | ✓ ECB 1.1224 (Thu 11-05) | Wed 11-04 → Thu 11-05 | live | Yahoo | ||
| USD/JPY | 157.6860 | -0.49% | ≈ FRED 157.4700 (Fri 10-30), coarse | Wed 11-04 → Thu 11-05 | live | Yahoo | ||
| GBP/USD | 1.3483 | +0.36% | ✓ FRED 1.3398 (Fri 10-30) | Wed 11-04 → Thu 11-05 | live | Yahoo |
Commodities
| Instrument | Last | Change | Flag | Cross-check | 20d trend | From → to | Basis | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTI crude | 90.41 | +2.60% | ≈ FRED 99.64 (Tue 11-03), coarse | Wed 11-04 → Thu 11-05 | live | Yahoo | ||
| Natural gas | 2.98 | +0.78% | single source | Wed 11-04 → Thu 11-05 | live | Yahoo | ||
| Gold | 4116.50 | +1.07% | single source | Wed 11-04 → Thu 11-05 | live | Yahoo | ||
| Copper | 6.28 | -1.86% | single source | Wed 11-04 → Thu 11-05 | live | Yahoo | ||
| Corn | 441.25 | -0.68% | single source | Wed 11-04 → Thu 11-05 | live | Yahoo | ||
| Wheat | 601.25 | +0.46% | single source | Wed 11-04 → Thu 11-05 | live | Yahoo | ||
| Soybeans | 1191.75 | -0.13% | single source | Wed 11-04 → Thu 11-05 | live | Yahoo |
Each change compares a ticker's last two rows, so periods differ by market. live = that session was still open when fetched; it is not a real-time price.
13 of 21 instruments are single source: passing checks means they look plausible, not that a second source agrees.
How unusual is today?
As a table
| Instrument | Move | σ |
|---|---|---|
| VIX | +55.51% | 8.7 |
| Russell 2000 futures | −4.22% | 5.9 |
| S&P 500 futures | −3.72% | 5.6 |
| Nasdaq 100 futures | −5.56% | 5.2 |
| US 5Y yield | −8.5 bp | 2.2 |
| Copper | −1.86% | 2.0 |
| Hang Seng | +1.67% | 1.8 |
| USD/JPY | −0.49% | 1.8 |
| US 3M T-bill rate | −2.7 bp | 1.6 |
| EUR/USD | +0.31% | 1.6 |
| US 10Y yield | −6.3 bp | 1.4 |
| GBP/USD | +0.36% | 1.2 |
| Nikkei 225 | −1.42% | 1.1 |
| Gold | +1.07% | 1.0 |
| WTI crude | +2.60% | 0.8 |
| Corn | −0.68% | 0.7 |
| Euro Stoxx 50 | −0.55% | 0.7 |
| Dollar index | −0.10% | 0.4 |
| Natural gas | +0.78% | 0.3 |
| Wheat | +0.46% | 0.3 |
| Soybeans | −0.13% | 0.2 |
Each move is measured against that instrument's own recent volatility, using the sanity check's number. WARN at 4σ, FAIL at 10σ. Moves cover different periods by market; see the tables above.
History
Daily closes stored by the refresh, about four months. Hover for values.
Copy today's note: plain text for chat or email, with the same numbers and caveats as this page
Morning Brief, data as of Thu Nov 05, 12:59 PM ET, after the US open Data checks: 4 data warnings. Numbers flagged below may be stale or unusual. (129 checks; 8 of 21 instruments cross-checked) Flagged, don't rely on: S&P 500 futures ⚠️, Nasdaq 100 futures ⚠️, Russell 2000 futures ⚠️, VIX ⚠️ Biggest moves against their own volatility (WARN at 4σ): VIX +55.51% (8.7σ) Russell 2000 futures −4.22% (5.9σ) S&P 500 futures −3.72% (5.6σ) Nasdaq 100 futures −5.56% (5.2σ) US 5Y yield −8.5 bp (2.2σ) US rates: 3M T-bill rate 3.998 (-2.7 bp), 5Y yield 4.604 (-8.5 bp), 10Y yield 4.831 (-6.3 bp) Scheduled today: Nothing listed in the calendars that loaded. Not covered: BLS (CPI, jobs). Check bls.gov. Changes cover different periods by market; 'live' means the session was open when fetched, not a real-time price. Free public data, not production market data. https://kechunwu.github.io/morning-brief/
What's scheduled for Thu Nov 05, 2026
No events scheduled that day in the calendars below.
Next 5 business days (8 events)
Fri Nov 06, 2026
No events listed.
Mon Nov 09, 2026
- 10:00 AM ET Monthly Wholesale Trade: Sales and Inventories, September 2026 (Census)
- 11:30 AM ET 13-Week Bill auction (Treasury)
- 11:30 AM ET 26-Week Bill auction (Treasury)
- 1:00 PM ET 3-Year Note auction (Treasury)
- 1:00 PM ET 6-Week Bill auction (Treasury)
Tue Nov 10, 2026
- 1:00 PM ET 10-Year Note auction (Treasury)
Wed Nov 11, 2026
No events listed.
Thu Nov 12, 2026
Times are New York time, as published. Covers BEA, Census, FOMC, ECB, Treasury. Not covered: BLS, including CPI and jobs reports, because its site refuses automated requests. Check its schedule directly.
Overnight news
- The Federal Reserve Board announced the termination of an enforcement action involving Allegiant United Holdings, LLC, Nano Financial Holdings, Inc., and Nano Banc. [1]
- EIA reports refineries have shifted production away from gasoline toward middle distillates, with particularly high refinery margins for distillate fuel oil and jet fuel contributing to yield shifts in 2026. [4]
- ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel published remarks on monetary policy titled 'Navigating stormy waters: reflections on monetary policy.' [2]
AI-generated from the headlines below (claude-haiku-5-5). Check sources before acting.
All headlines (4)
- [1] Federal Reserve (2026-11-05): Federal Reserve Board announces termination of enforcement action with Allegiant United Holdings, LLC, Nano Financial Holdings, Inc., and Nano Banc
- [2] ECB (2026-11-05): Isabel Schnabel: Navigating stormy waters: reflections on monetary policy
- [3] ECB (2026-11-05): Piero Cipollone: Shaping the future of money
- [4] EIA (2026-11-05): Refineries have shifted production away from gasoline to middle distillates
Track record
Since Sat Oct 31, 2026: 15 refreshes, 1,780 checks logged, 11 WARN and 0 FAIL results. 0 of 15 refreshes ran pre-open on a weekday.
What the checks found (5)
| Status | Check | Series | First seen | Last seen | Runs | Latest detail |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WARN | sanity | ES=F | Thu Nov 05 | Thu Nov 05 | 1 | latest move is 5.6 robust std devs |
| WARN | sanity | NQ=F | Thu Nov 05 | Thu Nov 05 | 1 | latest move is 5.2 robust std devs |
| WARN | sanity | RTY=F | Thu Nov 05 | Thu Nov 05 | 1 | latest move is 5.9 robust std devs |
| WARN | sanity | ^VIX | Thu Nov 05 | Thu Nov 05 | 1 | latest move is 8.7 robust std devs |
| WARN | gaps | ^N225 | Sat Oct 31 | Sun Nov 01 | 7 | 5 missing business days in window |
Each row merges the same result across runs. The cause and fix for each is in the build notes.
Every refresh (15)
| Ran (ET) | Trigger | Timing |
|---|---|---|
| Thu Nov 05, 12:59 PM | github-cron | after the open |
| Wed Nov 04, 4:03 PM | manual | after the open |
| Wed Nov 04, 3:55 PM | manual | after the open |
| Wed Nov 04, 1:42 PM | not recorded | after the open |
| Wed Nov 04, 11:00 AM | not recorded | after the open |
| Tue Nov 03, 9:48 AM | not recorded | after the open |
| Mon Nov 02, 11:13 AM | not recorded | after the open |
| Sun Nov 01, 7:53 PM | not recorded | weekend |
| Sun Nov 01, 7:20 PM | not recorded | weekend |
| Sat Oct 31, 1:57 PM | not recorded | weekend |
| Sat Oct 31, 1:45 PM | not recorded | weekend |
| Sat Oct 31, 1:36 PM | not recorded | weekend |
| Sat Oct 31, 1:28 PM | not recorded | weekend |
| Sat Oct 31, 1:26 PM | not recorded | weekend |
| Sat Oct 31, 1:13 PM | not recorded | weekend |
Runs from before triggers were logged say "not recorded". Pre-open means a weekday before 9:30 AM ET.
How the data checks work
- Completeness: every instrument arrived with enough history and no bad values.
- Freshness: the latest row is from the session we expect.
- Gaps: no business days are missing from recent history.
- Sanity: today's move is plausible for that instrument, and the price isn't frozen.
- Reconciliation: two sources for the same series agree.
This page is rebuilt by GitHub Actions after each weekday pre-open refresh. A machine-readable copy of the latest brief is at latest.json.